I've been busy lately... anything happening ?

I've been pondering the idea of writing a long post on the "Hot Water Sandwich" blog about my many years enjoying and collecting recorded music (vinyl albums, tape cassettes, and CDs). What brought this to mind is that I spent most of the last ten days making the digital-age equivalent of "mix tapes."

In 2000, I bought my first CD recorder and began transferring some of my vinyl record collection to CD. You wouldn't believe the number of hours I devoted to that hobby, since analog transfers are done essentially in real time. Copying the typical forty-minute vinyl album takes at least 40 minutes, more when you take into account the time spent turning the record over and so forth.

My first two computers had CD-ROM drives, but the new laptop has a CD/DVD burner. My son-in-law, who has every tech toy and gadget I can imagine, has been burning CDs for me for several years, and I always thought the speed at which a computer could burn CDs was awesome. Anyway, I've been compiling and burning music anthologies, and having a lot of fun doing it. I've been so preoccupied, I've barely paid attention to what's going on in the world. I think it's helpful to stop and clean out your mind from time to time.

Last week, there were key primary elections in Indiana and North Carolina. Obama did better than expected, narrowly losing in Indiana and winning decisively in NC. The current conventional wisdom is that he locked up the Dem nomination this week, and all that's left are the formalities.

Mrs. Clinton hasn't conceded, and has been making an argument that many of her voters won't shift their allegiance to Obama. There are apparently several million of them, and they're typically described as blue-collar, working class, older, lower-income, and less-educated. What we're talking about here are white people who still haven't gotten over the verdict in the O.J. Simpson trial, and damned sure aren't voting for anyone who shares his skin color. At one time, these folks were referred to as Reagan Democrats, but that term has been an oxymoron since 1980. After the first Reagan vote, those people stopped being Democrats and became Republicans.

So let's agree that Obama can't count on much support from that demographic. The typical Barack voter is described as younger, higher-income, and more educated. My dad and I were talking about the election this morning, and agreed on two things. First, neither of us has any interest in seeing Bill Clinton back in the White House. Second, we agreed the kind of people who are supporting Obama now typically don't turn out to vote in general elections. By that, we mean young people, the under-30s.

Here's something we know: Top Gun isn't going to win in November with the diehard pro-W vote, which is in the 31 percent vicinity, He needs to find another 20-25 percent somewhere, and he'll probably try to get it from Mrs. Clinton's "working class" supporters.

Assuming the CW is accurate, two things can happen that might make the November election interesting. First, after Top Gun is officially the GOP nominee, he might make a clear shift to the middle to lure Mrs. Clinton's disgruntled blue-collar voters. The conservative followers of Limbaugh, Hannity, and Coulter don't like Top Gun now, and they'll really be pissed if he runs as a centrist in the fall. Second, Obamarama may be a true phenomenon unlike anything we've ever seen in American politics, and maybe all those young voters will stay on board for the full ride. Millions of new voters who aren't showing up in traditional opinion polls.

Bottom line is, we might get an election that's closer than the experts are currently predicting. Obama still loses, but it's a nailbiter to the end. Top Gun wins, but his own party has to hold their noses to get through his four years. If the congressional races fall in line, I could live with that.