I got a lengthy e-mail this morning from my other buddy, the one who lives near Austin. The topics were all generally related to potential election outcomes and the pros and cons of Barry and Top Gun. In the past, we'd talked about the Republicans and their absolute dependence on wedge issues like gay marriage, abortion, and gun control, and I think we agreed the GOP could never win an election without them. My buddy made the point that Barry might end up being the ultimate wedge issue, and all factors considered, I think he's on to something.
On to other points in the e-mail:
Who'll Win: I harbor no illusions that Obama will be elected unless the traditional voting patterns in this country are turned upside down. Typically, old people vote and young people don't. Old people tend to be conservative, since they've experienced more years of getting kicked in the ass by life. Young people seem to be more liberal, since they still believe that anything is possible in life and things don't have to be bad. Obama's only chance of winning the election is that young voters show up in overwhelming numbers in the states he needs to win the Electoral College (all the states Kerry won, plus Ohio). I can't envision anything like a landslide victory for Obama, but there's a narrow possibility that if everything works out exactly right for him, he could squeeze out a close one.
Crossover Voting: According to news reports, there were people who had been voting for Republicans who voted in the Democratic primaries in states where it was allowed. Some of these votes went to Barry, but I expect an even larger number went to Mrs. Clinton. What's unknown is whether the Repubs who voted for Barry did so out of sincere support (as I did in 2000 when I voted for Top Gun in the Texas GOP primary), or just to create mischief.
The Experience Factor: I wrote about this a while back, and I personally believe experience is vastly overrated when predicting whether a president will amount to anything or not. I tend to think anyone managing to win a presidential election in modern America is probably smart enough to handle the basic duties of the job. The two worst presidents in my lifetime, Nixon and the current loser, had a wealth of experience or were surrounded by people who did. Didn't make an ounce of difference; things still got royally f-ed up. In that regard, the issue of character matters: A sociopath with extensive experience will still behave sociopathically.
The Maverick: Top Gun used to be a maverick, and my devotion to him in 2000 was because he didn't operate as predictably as your usual Republican. He was off the reservation much of the time, and the main characteristic of Repubs is they stay on the reservation. But as I've noted repeatedly, that was then. Top Gun learned the hard way that being a maverick wins the hearts of people like me, but not the hearts of Repubs who expect their candidates to be on the reservation at all times. His maverick days are probably over for good, unless he's already decided he'll settle for one term. In that unlikely eventuality, he may say to hell with it and spend the next four years right in the middle of the road.
The End of Days: Among religious people, there's a lot of concentration on the idea that the end times discussed in the Book of Revelation are nearing, if not upon us already. The evangelunicals appear to welcome the idea of The Rapture, which is one reason people like me want to keep them away from the levers of government. The internet allows access to more information on the subject of end times than I can handle, but if the end of the world is right around the corner, maybe I ought to buy that new car now instead of next year.
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