Although I'm told there is no basis for it in statistical reality, I still believe in the law of averages -- especially when it comes to football. The law of averages, as I use the term, refers to the likelihood that everything tends to even out over the long haul. For instance, if you flip a coin enough times, you'll eventually end up with roughly the same number of heads as tails.
Footballs, being prolate spheroids, often take strange bounces, and often need to bounce many times before things even out. A flipped coin will almost definitely land on either head or tail, and I've never seen one land on its edge. A loose football can bounce in an almost infinite number of directions, though, making probabilities tougher to calculate.
The football law of averages, as I apply it, means no team will win or lose forever, regardless of how good or bad they actually are. The coach of an undefeated team, if he's honest, will always admit that his guys caught a few lucky breaks when the ball bounced just right for them, and they won a game or two they could easily have lost based on raw performance. They beat the law of averages, then.
In football, it seems generally true that the longer a team is extremely good, the harder the fall will be when it finally comes. At the professional level, the examples that come to mind are the Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers. For years, those two teams owned the NFL. Dallas won Super Bowls in two decades, and look at them now. In collegiate football, this year's Texas Longhorns are a classic example of the steep fall. Mack Brown has taken pride in his ability to snap his fingers and get ten wins year after year, but in 2010 he's struggling to get half that many.
Today, the Aggies play Nebraska at Kyle Field. Their all-time record against the cornhuskers is 3-10, and 2-5 in Big 12 conference play. The first win was in 1955. One of Slocum's signature Big Game wins came against Nebraska in 1998, and Franchione's last (2007) team beat them 36-14. The team R.C. beat in 1998 was a championship contender -- the one Franchione beat had fallen on hard times. Nebraska this year isn't quite as good as the '98 team, but is significantly better than the 2007 edition that finished 5-7.
Nebraska's hard for me to figure out this year. They lost to Texas, but beat Missouri almost as badly as Missouri had beaten the Aggies. Their defense is the equal of any TAMU has faced this season, and better than most. The Aggies have overcome sloppy play (penalties, turnovers, and special teams breakdowns) with an ability to score lots of points since Tannehill took over at quarterback. Points will probably be harder to come by today, so A&M needs to eliminate the mistakes, or at least make fewer than the huskers do.
Where does the law of averages come in ? Since 2000, the Aggies have generally managed about two quality wins in their good seasons; this year they've already racked up three in a row. The law of averages says Nebraska won't be number four. On the other hand, Nebraska has owned A&M in Big 12 games, so the law of averages says the Aggies are due to win one. Today's game will be televised on ABC. From 2000-2009, the Aggie record in ABC games is a lousy 7-22 so they're due to win another one. Maybe tonight ? The football law of averages, being another of my sports superstitions, isn't much help in predicting how this game will turn out, so I guess I should just hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
Added 11:00 pm, same day: It was a bloodbath, but the Aggies won it 9-6. They played lights-out defense, were able to run the ball just enough to burn clock and get into position to kick three FGs, and best of all, were able to take advantage of Nebraska's penalties at critical points in the game. Usually, Aggie penalties are keeping opponent drives alive, so it was good to see them get a few lucky breaks for a change. Martinez, the husker QB, was injured early in the game and wasn't a big factor most of the time; that goes down as another break for TAMU. The Ags have been reversing a lot of trends this season, and tonight they reversed a few more.
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