Sunday, February 4, 2018

Rooskies

Daily Kos: What was Russia's real impact on the 2016 election?

Since the Republican Party is doing everything they can possibly do to make sure Russia will also control the 2018 and 2020 elections, we probably need a clear understanding of what we're dealing with. For example, in 2016, enough people who voted for Bernie Sanders in the primaries switched to Donny Phatazz in the general election to give him the win. From the Kos article:
"For actual data from the Guide to the 21016 Cooperative Congressional Election Survey, 16% of those who voted for Sanders in the PA primary voted for Trump in the general.  In WI and MI, it was 9% and 8% respectively.  To put this into raw numbers, Sanders-to-Trump voters ultimately gave Trump the margin he needed to win in each of those states:
  • In Wisconsin, roughly 51K Sanders voters backed Trump in a state he won by just 22K votes.
  • In Michigan, roughly 47K Sanders voters backed Trump in a state he won by just 10K votes.
  • In Pennsylvania, roughly 116K Sanders voters backed Trump in a state he won by just 44K votes.
Keep in mind that a Sanders-to-Trump vote is doubly painful because it likely represents a net +2 for Trump (absolute +1 vote for Trump and likely -1 vote for Clinton).  Also, the above analysis in these three states is before you even get to Sanders voters who protest voted for Stein/other or didn't vote at all.  And these folks were not Rs.  They were generally ideologically progressive and voted for Dems in the past."

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